Despite Economic Pressure, This Halloween Is Expected to Be Bigger Than Ever

It’s a story of unexpected resilience, involving pumpkins, zombies, K-Pop stars, and lots of candy. According to the National Retail Federation, spending on Halloween this year is expected to top $13.1 billion, up nearly 13% from last year’s $11.6 billion.¹

This is a truly staggering figure. By comparison, this far surpasses last year’s domestic movie box office total of $8.6 billion.² And it’s closing in on the NFL’s 2024 gross of $13.8 billion.³

Nearly three-quarters of Americans are planning to celebrate the holiday and will spend an average of $114.75 each to do so. That’s about an $11 increase from last year. And the overwhelming majority of Halloween shoppers believe they will be paying more because of tariffs, inflation, and other economic factors.

Costumes, the biggest spending category for the holiday, are predominantly manufactured in China, Vietnam, and other Asian countries most affected by price increases due to tariffs. These have ranged from 5% to 19% at the wholesale level. Many retailers imported their Halloween inventory before tariffs fully kicked in, but the trendiest costumes based on the latest popular media (for example, singing demon hunters) have most likely arrived with added cost.

Spending on Halloween decorations (the second largest category) is expected to increase 11% to $4.2 billion. Again, some of this increase is due to tariffs. But it also seems that more and more people are going all out to decorate their yards with massive spiders and towering skeletons.

Expenditures on candy (the third largest category), arguably the primary reason for trick-or-treating, are predicted to reach $3.9 billion, also increasing by 11%. Chocolate is king of candyland, with little ghosts and goblins favoring houses that pass out the full-size Hershey Bars.

But unfortunately for chocolate lovers, the industry has been experiencing rising costs for several years, due largely to weather extremes. West Africa, which produced 70% of the world’s cocoa, has been hit by heavy rains followed by drought. As a result, last year’s cocoa production fell 12%, creating the highest supply deficit in more than 60 years.

Of course, consumers are responding to these higher prices by changing their purchasing behavior. The data shows that Halloween shoppers are increasingly visiting discount stores, buying smaller candy, and taking advantage of sales.

Phil Lempert, who writes about food and retail trends for Forbes, believes that people are willing to pay more for Halloween because it’s an entertaining tradition to them. “Families are committed to maintaining Halloween celebrations especially now,” he writes, “where tensions are heated and emotions easily triggered.”

In other words, people are looking for distraction and a bit of fun.

While the unexpected growth of Halloween serves as a good example of the complexity and unpredictability of the economy, it’s also an example of the human element in financial decisions. People find a way to pay for the things that are important to them.

We hope this Halloween you get a chance to meet your neighbors, and that you can be the house that gives out the good stuff.