Preview of what we’ll cover today:

📉 Why rates feel high (but aren’t historically)

🏠 How inventory keeps today’s market a seller’s game

⏳ Why waiting could cost more than buying now

🔄 The refinance conversation: when it does and doesn’t make sense

📊 Lessons from 2008, 2020, and today’s market

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More About This Episode:

Why do today’s mortgage rates feel worse than they really are? When it comes to real estate and mortgages, timing and perspective make all the difference. In this episode, Ryan sits down with Kelly Phillips, Mortgage Expert and Branch Manager at Fairway Mortgage, who brings more than 25 years of experience to the conversation. With a front-row seat to the shifting housing market, Kelly shares her insights on today’s rates, buyer hesitation, and what really determines the best time to buy.

She explains why historical perspective matters, why rates in the 6% range aren’t nearly as bad as they seem compared to the 2–3% lows of recent years, and why waiting too long could cost more in the long run. Kelly also reflects on lessons from the 2008 mortgage crisis and the refinancing boom of 2020, offering valuable takeaways for both first-time buyers and seasoned homeowners. Are you sitting on the fence wondering whether to buy, refinance, or wait? Kelly Phillips cuts through the noise of today’s market with expert insights that will give you the clarity and confidence to make your next move.

Here’s what we cover in this episode:                                                                                                        

📉 Why rates feel high (but aren’t historically)

🏠 How inventory keeps today’s market a seller’s game

⏳ Why waiting could cost more than buying now

🔄 The refinance conversation: when it does and doesn’t make sense

📊 Lessons from 2008, 2020, and today’s market

0:00 – Meet Kelly Phillips, mortgage expert

1:56 – Current market conditions & interest rates

3:06 – Why today’s rates feel high (but aren’t)

5:37 – What rising rates mean for homeownership decisions

9:59 – The #1 Mortgage Broker in the Country

14:58 – Mortgages Crisis from 2008 and 2020

20:44 – Kelly’s advice: don’t wait too long

Contact Kelly Phillips, Mortgage Expert & Branch Manager at Fairway Home Mortgage

843-209-8805

kelly.phillips@fairwaymc.com

www.yourfairwaylender.com 

Resources:

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Episode Transcription:

(Note, this is an automated transcription. Please forgive any errors.)

Ryan Fleming 0:04
Foreign Welcome to another edition of the pilots advisor, and we have a very special guest today. We’re going to be talking to Kelly Phillips of fairway mortgage. She’s been a mortgage broker in the industry for many, many years, and we’re going to gain some gather and gain and gather some insight on what the current state of affairs are.

Kelly Phillips 0:21
Thank you so much, Ryan for having me. It’s such an honor to be here today. And yeah, I would love to share some insight about the market and kind of what’s going on and projections and what everything looks like.

Ryan Fleming 0:32
So So Kelly, first of all, I just want to get back to how long we’ve known each other. I think we met each other back in 2005 does that sound right to you?

Kelly Phillips 0:39
That’s about right, somewhere a long, long, long time ago, but yeah, about 20 years or so.

Ryan Fleming 0:44
Yeah, cuz Carrie and I had just moved to Charleston, and I remember I was, I was still had my real estate license back then, and I walked into the Carolina one office, I ended up meeting Kelly, and she happened to be from Cincinnati, where I’m from, and we even knew some of the same people. She was in a you were at Fairfield High School. I was from Wyoming, and they’re not too far from each other. My mom actually lived in Fairfield, so we played the name game. And I think it was from then on that that I’ve had a business relationship with you and have used you as a personal lender, amongst many other real estate deals.

Kelly Phillips 1:21
Yeah, yeah. It’s, it was pretty, pretty fun having you come in, and then just all of a sudden we knew so many you know different people and from the same area, a lot of

Ryan Fleming 1:30
connections, absolutely. So here we are, 20 years later. The reason why I wanted to have you on the podcast is I get asked all the time real estate questions. Hey, we want to buy a house. Hey, we’re selling this house. We’re moving at retirement. And I’ve, you know, I’ve worked with you so many times. I think you’re an amazing resource for any of my clients. As far as getting Lent, their lending needs, refinancing, whatever it might be, and I thought it would be a good thing to have you on the podcast so people get get to know you. But on top of that, let’s talk about the current state of affairs as well.

Kelly Phillips 2:03
All right, that sounds good. So the market, oh my gosh. And the big question is, When are the interest rates going to drop? And I think we’ve all been been waiting for that to happen for quite some time now, and certainly anticipated that happening, you know, a year or so ago, once inflation started shifting and and they’re still, unfortunately kind of at the higher sixes, but, but there are continued projections for them to to be reduced, you know, this year or even next year. So, so there are some projections out there, like Fannie Mae is thinking low sixes, NARS upper five or, I’m sorry, NARS actually thinking that they’ll stay, you know, closer to the 675, range or whatnot. So you have different different projections, and they’re not all aligning, but, but it’s definitely driven by the our economical status and and hopefully the inflation will continue to come down a little bit, but it’s not, not quite where they’re wanting it to be at this point in time.

Ryan Fleming 3:05
So Well, I think, I think that there’s some things that have happened in the market that make it very difficult right now. First of all, rates where they are right now, if you look at historical numbers, is not that bad, but I think that we just got spoiled for so many years with rates between we had like, two and a half percent, 3% I can remember back in the day getting a rate that was like 5.25 and I thought I hit the lottery. I think, yeah. And I think the hard part now is because real estate prices have continued to go up, and then from where rates were to where they are now, people’s buying power got cut in half. So you have a bunch of people that have a mortgage at like, two and a half to 3% they don’t want to move, because they’re looking at where rates are now, and then those people wanting to buy a house, they have half the buying power, and house prices have continued to go up. So it’s a very, very challenging market right now.

Kelly Phillips 3:59
Absolutely, they’re actually saying, like, once the rates do come down, and they’re projecting, you know, once they hit around that 6% mark or so, that’s going to essentially open the floodgates for about five and a half million people to put them in the position to be able to buy so, you know, right now, it’s, it’s still a seller’s market. The the inventory that’s out there is lower than than what would be considered a balanced market. So balanced markets about six months or so for for the inventory to be sitting before it goes under contract. And right now, kind of on, on average nationally, it’s about two months. So it’s still, you know, it’s still considered a seller’s market. There’s a lot of buyers out there who want to buy. I think there’s hesitation with where the rates are. But just like you said, I mean, the rate, the rates are really, overall, they’re good. They’re good. And, you know, based upon perspective and experience of where people have. Seen the rates in the recent years and the two and 3% you know, there are a lot of people who are like, Oh, they’re high, they’re high. But, Gosh, 1520, years ago, 10 years ago, you know, the rates are really good right now. So it’s, um, it’s certainly a good time to buy, especially if you can get ahead of the game and and in front of those other buyers who are going to be, you know, jumping off that fence when the rates come down, because you do have the the appreciation year over year. So if you can get in where it’s a little bit lower price point wise for a home, you’re going to be that, you know, that much further ahead.

Ryan Fleming 5:37
Well, you’ve been in many, many markets. You’ve been doing this for a long time. And I think that’s the hard part, especially if you’re in a very desirable area, you know, you live in Charleston, I think that, I think that it’s tough to think that there’s going to be a correction in some of those markets. And, you know, obviously real estate as a long term investment, continues to go up absolutely and I just think it’s, I think it’s just tough, because you watch a lot of people right now that want to to buy a house, right? But when you start looking at real estate prices and what their mortgages are going to be, it is, it is a tough market. It is. It’s tough for especially younger individuals to have home ownership. And I also think that most you know, like it reminds me of investing, where people will allow the taxes to affect their investing decision, and I see that right now, where people actually want to move, but they’re not willing to walk away from that mortgage that they have that’s at 3%

Kelly Phillips 6:32
right? Absolutely, absolutely, you know. And I’ve seen it is definitely tough for younger individuals or people starting out wanting to buy their first homes and actually being able to afford something in the market. And you have other markets that are growing at a much quicker pace than than some markets that, you know, people are moving, like Columbia, South Carolina. It, it hasn’t necessarily been a hot spot for growth over the years, but right now it is so so, you know, there are people who are looking in those areas that are more affordable and and you know, where they can actually get in and start get into their first home, and start building some some equity, and then some investments, and then, you know, creating a foundation for their family and for their future. But it’s like the Charleston market, for example, it’s really, really tough for first time home buyers to get going, just because it’s your your lowest price point of a home is so high. So I’m seeing people go in together, and, you know, I’ve seen friends go in together and buy, you know, let’s, let’s go in. We’ll buy this home together. We’ll live in it, and then in a couple years, we can hopefully sell and then we’ll just split the equity and then roll it into our own homes. So it’s interesting, what’s going on.

Ryan Fleming 7:45
Well, at least that way, I guess they’re building equity, versus just sending it off to run each month, where it’s gone forever, exactly. I also find it very interesting. A market that comes to mind for me is Austin, Texas. I mean, real estate there was off the charts, like just, you know, just going up a crazy amount, and for the first time ever, it’s actually pulling back, and home prices are going down, and things aren’t moving as quickly. And I think it’s, it’s interesting, because it just shows you no different than some places in California, where it’s got to pull back and correct itself a little bit at some point. Or, of course, the demand. I mean, everything that we talk about is supply and demand, right? 100% Absolutely, absolutely. So Kelly, how many years have you actually been doing this? Gosh, I’ve been in the business for about 25 years. Okay. Gosh, we are getting old.

Kelly Phillips 8:36
You may be getting old. I’m not getting old. I’m

Ryan Fleming 8:39
getting old, but you’ve helped us with you’ve helped Carrie and myself with many, many real estate transactions. Communication is amazing. The money’s always there. Closing always happens on time. Never had a negative experience with you at all. And so if individuals wanted to reach out to you, they have home lending needs. What is the best way to get in contact with you, yeah,

Kelly Phillips 9:00
so I have they can go to your fairway lender.com, and all of my contact information is there. So call me, email me, whatever works for you. Text me. You know, I’m very flexible. So many different people work in different ways. So I will shift, and I will accommodate whatever is the the best way for communication for that particular customer and and then we do try to keep, keep everything smooth and on point through the process. So, you know, thank you, Ryan, for recognizing I’m very, very efficient and timely, and just always making sure that everything is good and good communication. And we do, really, we try to keep everything in house so, so underwriting is in house, processing is in house, and then, you know, I’ve been doing this for so long that I’m well versed with guidelines, so I try to do everything upfront and review each customer situation and see what’s going to work best for them. But, but, yeah, you can text me, email me, call me, whatever

Ryan Fleming 9:57
works well, I will include all your contact. Information in the show notes with a link to get getting in touch with Kelly if you have any needs. And I know, I know you don’t like talking about yourself, but I’m going to embarrass you a little bit so you are, like one of the number one mortgage brokers in our whole country. Can you tell us a little bit about that? Tell us a little bit about the the company that you work for, and why it’s different. I mean, obviously no different than myself being in the investment business. You evolve. You get better. You might switch companies. You might you want to go find or, like, I think about it every day. My job is to go find the best thing for my clients. Go find the best investments. If I can do it cheaper, I can do it better. And the same thing in your industry. How did you get where you are now, and just tell us about fairway. And then I also want you to tell us about how you’re one of the most recognized mortgage lenders in the country.

Kelly Phillips 10:49
Thanks, Ryan fairway. Gosh, I wish I had found fairway years and years and years ago. It is just truly an amazing company to work for. They focus on speed taking care of people. I mean, all the people who I work with are just salt of the earth, people who care about customers and care about service and care about being on point. And you know, as far as like donations and philanthropy within the company as well. It’s just, it’s a very giving company and and I just, I can’t say enough good things about fairway and the people, everybody I’ve experienced who has worked within the company, I feel like everybody is on the same page as far as mindset and customer service and just taking care of people. And I’ve been through different companies over the years and and it’s I’ve struggled with aligning with where they want to be in in regards to customer service, and where I wanted to be in regards to customer service. You know, I want, I want to be the Ritz Carlton of the mortgage industry and really, just truly roll out the red carpet and take care of people, provide a seamless experience. And fairway helps me to be able to accomplish that with our underwriting team. I mean, we go underwrite a file in a day or two, if we need something cleared quickly to get it to the closing table. We can do that. We have the ability to swiftly move. We have an array of products. So, so I really that that’s I love. There’s so many things I love about fair wear, but so that’s about the company. Over the years, as far as like, what is, what is propelled me in my business is constantly searching for the high level of customer service, and what can I do to provide a better experience for customer This isn’t rocket science, you know, there, there’s a need, and it’s about knowledge and creating systems to really take care of people efficiently and effectively and and just having that knowledge and that foundation, the background of where I’m going to best take care of them, and knowing the products and knowing the guidelines so so really the systems has kind of made my business what it is, and just really the focus on taking care of people,

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Ryan Fleming 14:16
Yeah, systems and procedures. I mean, get a bit better at your business. So that all makes sense to me. And of course, I wouldn’t be presenting you to all my clients and the listeners that we have if I didn’t think you were top notch. And I’ve had many experiences with you, and you just get it done in an organized manner. It’s never last minute. She’s really good at what she does. I don’t know what else to say so. And an amazing business woman, I mean, I’ve watched you grow over the years. And I think one of the best things, not only have you just become a you know, your business model has grown and had more and more clients and customers, but they all come back. They all love you. And I think that that’s just a testament to how you operate and how you are as a person in general. So thank you. For all you do. The last thing I want to talk about too, you know, I try to not have our podcast go much beyond 2030 minutes, but I want to pick your brain as well. You’ve been through some crazy times. I mean, you, you were in the lending business, you know, through 2008 the mortgage crisis. And we always joke that when things are really, good. There’s a million real estate agents out there, and there’s a million lenders out there, and then you have some sort of a correction, and then they all kind of die off and go away. And you know, the tough people are the ones that stay and survive. Can you talk about, I mean, I think everybody remembers the mortgage crisis, but can you talk a little bit about what we went through in 2022 with inflation. I mean, it’s the quickest uptick in inflation I think we’ve had in our country’s history, and how it slowly eased back. I think right now, most people would say, if you look at the numbers, we should be having rate cuts. We should have already had rate cuts. I find it very difficult for me on my side, because I think it’s seems to be a little bit political right now, but I think it’s coming. It has to. I mean, inflation has pretty much halted, but, but just talk us through what the last two to three years have been like for you and your business with with interest rates and everything else. Sure,

Kelly Phillips 16:14
sure. It oh my gosh, when the rates dropped in 2020, I mean, it was, it was more. So I could call my friends, I call my family. I was like, y’all won’t see me for a little while. I just have to work, work, work, work, work. And, you know, it was, it was crazy off the charts. I mean, normally we’ll, I don’t know, we’ll have about 20 closings or so a month, but back then, it was 50 closings. So it was just, it was insane. And one thing, going back to how wonderful our company is, is very forward thinking and strategic of, how are we going to efficiently and effectively help these people through the refinances? And they they were able to or or approved delegation for underwriting. So we actually did it where my I did a preliminary underwrite on all my files, or the majority of my files, my processor, she went through and she underwrote for the final underwrite sign off on it, and we were rolling so, so it really didn’t even those files didn’t go through the full process so very forward thinking and shifting. But it was crazy back then, for sure, a fury of loans and people buying and and as far as home prices, oh my gosh. I mean, they were going up 1520, 30% if not more, you know, depending on the neighborhood, depending on the area. So multiple offers. It was just insane busy over the past couple years. It definitely hasn’t been nearly, you know, anything like that. As far as being busy, and, you know, this is definitely, like Ryan said, as far as, like, repeat and whatnot, this is relationship business. So, so we take care of people, we have the relationships. It is definitely slowed down over the past couple years with the the decrease in rates, and then, you know, the uncertainty in the market and and we have been waiting for the rates to come down, and I do think, I think there’ll be lower by the end of this year, but, um, but how much lower and how quick, you know, how quickly are we going to get there? So, so there has been a shift in the market. There has been a shift in inventory, like Ryan had mentioned, if you have a two or 3% interest rate, if you want to go somewhere, it’s tough. It’s a lot of people do not want to let go of the interest rate that they have, and, you know, and pay a six and a half percent rate on a new house. So nor can they, you know, that’s another thing. Is some people are like, well, shoot, I can never get rid of this house. I’m kind of stuck. Per se. It’s like you have that equity you can roll it into another house, but it definitely is a difference in Financials, I have seen an uptick in credit card debt, so that’s that’s certainly a little concerning. And and those people who do have the lower interest rates, like, Okay, well, how are we going to tackle this large credit card debt? So the inflation, you know, the spending, is there, so inflation’s still up, but it’s definitely better than than where it has been. And there are certainly political things going on in the market, and I think that’s, you know, hindering us from being able to move forward, as far as the the Fed, cutting the rates there. So a lot, a lot going on. Definitely a slower time than where it was in, 2020, 2021, 20. 22 but that, that time, right there, was crazy. I mean, I, you know, I don’t think we’ll ever see anything like that again in our lives, but, but it’s still, I think it’s still a solid market and, and it’s, it’s a good market. It’s just it, it’s a little bit slower than what it was, or a lot slower than what it was, but it’s not too far different from what’s normal.

Ryan Fleming 19:45
Yeah, well, I would agree with you. I’m not convinced that we’ll ever see rates back like that where they were. And you know, it just sounds to me like feast or famine, and for a while there was just a crazy feast, and then boom, 2022 happens. Things really, really slow down. And, yeah, that’s where you find out who you are and who your clients are, and how you can help them and and a great time, like we’ve talked about, from a business perspective. How do I get better? You know, it gives you a little bit of time to breathe and look in the mirror and say, hey, you know, here’s the things I need to improve on, because, because the market will turn, it will shift. At some point, I think rates will come down absolutely. And I always forget about this. You know, we talk a lot about just business type stuff, but I forget that you you truly have a peek behind the curtains of seeing how things change for for your clients and customers. As far as debt, you know how? I mean, you get to see how the effects of inflation and how it’s affected people over the years. So that’s very interesting. Yeah, yeah. So, So Kelly, first of all, I want to thank you for taking the time out of your day to be on the podcast so we could introduce you to everybody, so we could talk about mortgages and the real estate market. Is there anything else that you think of, and I know I’m putting you know the point, just like I do, but is there any, is there any one thing that you want to say to anybody out there that’s either looking at selling their home, looking at buying a new home, things to think about in the current market environment, or just general advice that you could give from somebody that’s been in the market for 25 years?

Kelly Phillips 21:16
Sure, sure. So my I guess the biggest thing that I would love to share, or just have people consider, is if, if you’re scared to get in the market or to make that shift, there’s no time like the present. I mean, if you think about it, there’s still appreciation going on in the market and and if you wait a year, if you wait two years to actually get into the market, it is, it’s going to, you’re going to be paying more on a home because of the natural appreciation that is occurring in the market. So even though the rates might be a little bit higher, now you can always refinance when they do come down. But if you can get in now, sooner rather than later, you’ll start building your equity, building your appreciation and and your investments so and then if you you know, if you do own a home and you want to make that shift once again, you could always refinance or whatnot in the future, and with the lower interest rates once, once the market shifts. So

Ryan Fleming 22:10
just makes me think of all the stories we’ve talked about over the years. Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda. Oh, I wish I would’ve brought that property. I wish I would’ve done this. And

Kelly Phillips 22:17
I hear that all the time, and I’m like, Ah, but had you five years ago, look where you would be now. And, I mean, I do, I hear so many people say, you know, they regret not doing this. They regret not not buying that home, or, you know, pulling the trigger because they were scared. So, so, you know, as far as interest rates, yeah, they’re, they’re a little bit higher now than where they were, but they’re still really good. And then get into the market.

Ryan Fleming 22:41
Yeah, one and it is scared. No one could predict the future, but I, I do think some rate cuts are on the horizon, and I do think rates will come down here shortly, but the opportunity is now, and I 100% agree with you that you got, you got to jump in, and then you always have that option of refinancing later on, and maybe on a future episode, we’ll talk about the numbers where it makes sense to refinance. Another thing about you that I think has always been amazing is when I’ve talked to you about refinancing, we look at the numbers. It’s not like, Oh, I got another deal here. It’s like, Well, Ryan, it might not make sense for you to refinance. Or Ryan, you’re so far down the line of the amortization schedule, I don’t think you should refinance. So I think having somebody that’s trusted, that looks at the actual numbers and you can talk about is is very valuable. Thank you so much for being on the podcast today. Very much appreciate it. I’m sure we’ll, we’ll have you back in the future, and if I start getting a lot of questions from from listeners and clients, then we’ll bring you on and maybe even get you to answer some of those questions. Sounds good. I’m always here, and I’d love to do that. All right. Well, thank you so much for being on and we’ll have you back. And have a wonderful Business Week and enjoy the rest of your July. Thank you so much. You do the same. All right, take care. Kelly, it’s always great talking to you. Thanks, Ryan. You too.

Speaker 1 24:00
Information is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute tax investment or legal advice. Always consult with a qualified investment legal or tax professional before taking any action.