Preview:

After days of sharp declines, the announcement that there will be a 90-day pause on tariffs for 75 countries and increased pressure on China led to an instantaneous pop upwards.

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More About This Episode:

If there’s ever been a great example of why you stay invested and avoid trying to time the market, it would be these recent market movements from tariff news. After days of sharp declines, the announcement that there will be a 90-day pause on tariffs for 75 countries and increased pressure on China led to an instantaneous pop upwards.

This sudden upswing is a textbook reminder of why staying invested—especially during volatile times—is critical for long-term success. With the market’s ability to rebound swiftly, those who sit on the sidelines risk missing out on significant gains.

In this quick update, we’ll discuss how emotional decision-making can derail a portfolio and the hidden risks of going to cash. Every day of big gains or sharp losses is a reminder of the power of discipline and the cost of hesitation.

Here’s what we cover in this episode:

💸 Why going to cash too early can cost you big

🧭 Lessons from COVID, 2008, and other major downturns

📆 Why 2025 might finish stronger than you think


Resources:

Retire Pilots – https://retirepilots.com

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Pilot Tax – https://pilot-tax.com/

The Pilot’s Advisor Podcast is also on video. Watch & Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3EIEBW2

Connect with Pilot-Tax: https://pilot-tax.com/

Episode Transcription:

(Note, this is an automated transcription. Please forgive any errors.)

Ryan Fleming: Time. It is in the market right now. So here I am with Walter Storholt and we’re about to record a podcast. And of course, Donald Trump announces that he’s dropping the tariffs for 90 days on all the countries, the 75 countries that came to the table to negotiate and then upped the tariffs on China. Net effect instantaneously. The, uh, NASDAQ was up over 10%. The Dow, the S and P just popped just like that. And you know, we’ve been in one of the, the hardest trading environments this year. I mean, it’s been wild and crazy, almost untradable. And I felt like today was a lesson in why you never, ever, ever go to 100% cash. If you were sitting on the sidelines right now, you just missed out on a 10% pop. You always have to have some money in the market because of stuff like this, because of days like this. And uh, I don’t know, Walter, wild and crazy. What are your reactions?

Walter Storholt: Yeah, I mean, you bring up a great point because we were kind of. And this could still be the case, right? We could still be in for a longer downturn. And that’s the whole point. We just don’t know. But to your, to exactly what you’re kind of getting at here, I had the same kind of thoughts where, okay, well, if we’re down about 20%, you know, it could be 40 at some point. So what if I get out now, wait, let it go down some more, then I can jump back in and I’ve at least stopped some of that bleeding that I’ve already experienced like, you know, a few minutes after having that thought, boom, a 10% gain. And so it just shows that the timing sounds always awesome when you think it out in post. But you make one wrong move and you’ve missed out on, uh, an incredible fix that you otherwise would have just ridden right back up.

Ryan Fleming: Well, and that’s why it’s so you have to have an unemotional system because it’s, the market is completely unpredictable. And I, uh, mean, it would have been amazing to have that information leaked like an hour prior, you know, like, ah, okay, let me, let me get in, let me leverage this market. Let me do all these things. Uh, but unfortunately that’s just unrealistic. But you can just see immediately with the 90 day reprieve on tariffs, the market’s like, cool. Now we know what’s going on for the next 90 days. Let’s rock and roll.

Walter Storholt: Yeah, it is, it’s a great illustration in, in how Uncertainty is tied to the market. Um, definitely. They just, they hold hands. Right. And so you fix some uncertainties, the market feels pretty good. You have lots more uncertainty. Market doesn’t like that and goes the other direction.

Ryan Fleming: It’s all about the unknown. And the market does not like unknowns. And, and it’s been a very volatile market because we just don’t really know what trade in the world is going to look like. Um, but, you know, we’ve seen this before. I mean, this, this so much reminds me of COVID where during COVID I mean, we thought the whole world was just going to shut down. And, you know, the markets didn’t know what was going to happen, and they dumped and they dumped big, massive. And I keep going back to those years because, you know, we, we were very unemotional. Okay. We knew that the markets are going to come back because they always do. And I don’t care what the situation is. Every time, whether it’s 2000, 2008, uh, 2019, 2022, there’s always a little bit different narrative. But I know that the markets are going to come back because they always do. And holding truth to that, um, and during the COVID years, I mean, we did 40% back to back in both of those years by following the analytics, by being unemotional, by, uh, buying the deals, buying the dip, reallocating, doing all those principles that we know we have to do. And I’m going to go on record as saying it, I can’t predict the future, but I still feel like 2025, we’re not only going to recoup how much the market’s down right now, but we will finish net positive. And I think we’ll finish net positive up quite a bit, to be honest with you.

Walter Storholt: Yeah, it’s amazing, actually. If you look at data from over the years, there’s been plenty of years where we had very large downswings during the year. But for the calendar year, it still ended up, um, as a positive year, um, with those reversals and improvements that, that can happen throughout the course of the year. So it wouldn’t be unprecedented for that to happen.

Ryan Fleming: Yeah. And it’s constantly trying to talk people off the ledge because I know, uh, you know, a ton of clients that are getting worked, uh, up wanting to go to 100% cash. I mean, I just imagine how bad that would hurt if you just went to cash this morning, let’s say because of all the volatility that’s happened the last three days. And then boom, now you’re behind 11%.

Walter Storholt: Yep. And now you’re faced with that next decision. Right. Do I get back in and suck up the fact that I lost that, or do I try to wait it out again and that 10 could turn back into 20 that you’ve missed out if it keeps going up, or you’re now waiting and waiting and waiting and trying. Now you’re just chasing your tail.

Ryan Fleming: Well, and we know when we look at the data, time in the market is the biggest factor. There, uh, was another prospect. I was talking to a pilot and he had been sitting on the sidelines in cash since early 2024 and so missed out on a 28 gain last year. Still sitting on the sidelines.

00:05:00

Ryan Fleming: And, you know, I felt like, you know, right now it’s like, man, you know, this market has delivered to you a silver platter of, hey, now’s the time to get back in the market. You know, not playing the market timing game. Um, let’s get, you know, get back in, buy this dip and start pressing and don’t ever do that again. And boom, you missed it.

Walter Storholt: Yep, it creates a bad situation. Looking ahead, Ryan, uh, we’re still not, ah, you know, out of the woods by any stretch. We could have tons of volatility still on the way. There’s still this back and forth and debate with China, which is now amped up even more so the markets kind of, once they absorb maybe the, uh, the good news here, the attention might flow right back to the fact that, okay, we’re still in a pretty serious situation with China, with bidding happening back and forth. So I don’t know, the uncertainty still not completely eliminated, although, uh, a large chunk of it was taken off the table.

Ryan Fleming: Well, absolutely. And I think what’s going to happen is we have a 90 day period, almost like a cooling off period, where I think the White House is going to negotiate a lot of these tariff deals with these other countries and get those on the books. And I think ultimately, regardless of what China’s intentions are, they’re going to have to come to the table.

Walter Storholt: Yeah, it’ll be interesting to see exactly how it all shakes out.

Any final thoughts for listeners and viewers as we, uh, absorb the news of the day

Any final thoughts for listeners and viewers as we, uh, kind of absorb the news of the day?

Ryan Fleming: Well, I got a smile on my face because I think wild times just to watch the negotiations going on. I think that this is short term pain for a long term gain because we do have to even the playing field when it comes to global trade and markets. Um, it’s in the US’s best interest and it’s been far too long, so I’m happy these negotiations are happening. Um, from an investment standpoint, you have to be unemotional. You have to be long term. You cannot make short term emotional decisions. This will be a blip on the radar. We won’t even remember it six months from now, I’m guessing.

Walter Storholt: Interesting. We’re going to see how it plays out, of course. Uh, thanks for the quick update today. Ryan and I know we’ll have more episodes coming out in the coming weeks on these topics and how to deal with volatile times and how to navigate those things, as well as all sorts of other great retirement and financial planning things that we talk about. In the meantime, if you’re watching this or listening on your favorite podcasting app, go to retirepilots.com retirepilots.com that’s where you’re going to be able to find Ryan’s toolkit. It’s, uh, going to break down the essentials, the important m information about planning for retirement, getting to and through retirement. And of course, it’s specifically designed for pilots and what you face, your investments, your opportunities. Uh, go check it all out [email protected] we’ve got links and contact info in the description of today’s show for you to check out. Ryan, thanks so much. We’ll talk to you soon.

Ryan Fleming: Thanks as always, Walter. Appreciate it.